Is Luck Real? An Exploration Through Belief, Science, and Self

 

The Concept of Luck: Is It Real or Just Perception?

From childhood, I came across many people who openly patronized palmistry, astrology, and the role of planets, or wore stones believed to shape their luck. I even heard stories of black magic from my grandpas and grandmas, who happened to be very friendly with me. These experiences stirred my curious mind, pushing me to explore these phenomena deeply until I was in my early twenties.

Gradually, with the struggle to build a sound career, I had to relinquish these silently budded hobbies and focus on my professional aspirations. However, when I enrolled at IIT, my roommate unexpectedly watered this dormant interest. We often found ourselves in long discussions, debating astrological charts and cosmic influences, but always weaving in scientific underpinnings.

Recently, one of my students—an engineer by profession—visited my home for a project he was pursuing under my supervision. We were also connected on social media, where I discovered his keen interest in astrology, evident through the numerous articles he had published. During our discussions, I shared my birth date, time, and place with him. To my surprise, he made several remarkably accurate interpretations about my life journey.

What does this indicate? We cannot blindly dismiss these ancient practices as mere superstition. With correct scientific and mathematical interpretation, there exist strong patterns and insights that can be beneficial to many.

Philosophical Underpinnings: Fate, Determinism, and Existential Choice

Philosophers have wrestled with the nature of chance and fortune for millennia. Ancient Greeks conceptualized Tyche—the goddess of luck and fortune—as a force that shaped human destinies. The Stoics, however, viewed the universe as rationally ordered and deterministic, suggesting that what we call "luck" is merely our limited perception of cause and effect.

In Eastern philosophies, such as Buddhism and Hinduism, karma is central. Luck is replaced by the law of moral causation: our present circumstances are results of past actions rather than arbitrary cosmic dice rolls. Similarly, in existentialism, thinkers like Jean-Paul Sartre emphasize personal freedom and responsibility, cautioning against attributing outcomes to luck as it undermines authentic choice.

Thomas Nagel’s concept of "moral luck" further complicates this debate by highlighting how factors beyond our control often shape moral judgments. Thus, luck becomes a subjective lens through which we interpret life events rather than an objective external force.

Luck/Destiny in Science: Probability and Randomness

From a scientific standpoint, what we perceive as luck is better explained through randomness and probability. Quantum physics reveals that events at subatomic levels are governed by probabilistic rules rather than deterministic certainties. Yet, these are natural laws, not acts of fortune.

In biology, the idea of "random mutation" is central to evolution. The emergence of traits that allowed certain species to survive environmental upheavals might appear as lucky breaks but are, in reality, random variations filtered by natural selection.

Statistics and behavioral economics also highlight how humans consistently misattribute chance outcomes to skill. The work of Kahneman and Tversky on cognitive biases, especially the "illusion of control," shows that people often see patterns or control where none exist, fueling beliefs in luck.

Business and Entrepreneurship: The Myth of the Lucky Break

In business, "luck" is frequently invoked to explain massive successes. Companies like Airbnb and Tesla are often portrayed as beneficiaries of lucky timing or market conditions. However, deeper analysis reveals meticulous planning, resilience, and adaptability—qualities that make these so-called "lucky" opportunities possible.

Warren Buffett's insight, "Get into a game where you’re lucky," emphasizes strategic positioning rather than blind fortune. Entrepreneurs cultivate conditions where favorable outcomes are more probable, thus blurring the lines between luck and preparation.

Sports: The Bounce of Fortune

Athletes often attribute success to luck: a ball bouncing favorably, a referee’s call, or an unexpected opponent error. Yet, as Michael Jordan famously said, "The more I practice, the luckier I get." This illustrates that repeated effort, training, and discipline create scenarios where outcomes appear lucky but are fundamentally earned.

Sports psychology teaches athletes to focus on "controllables"—effort, strategy, and mindset—minimizing dependence on chance and emphasizing personal agency.

The Arts: Serendipity or Strategy?

In creative fields, stories of unexpected stardom abound. Authors like J.K. Rowling faced multiple rejections before achieving global fame. Musicians often speak of chance encounters or viral moments as pivotal. Yet, behind these so-called "lucky breaks" are years of unseen labor.

Seneca’s maxim, "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity," encapsulates this well. The artist’s constant practice and output increase the likelihood of intersecting with the right moment.

Social Structures: Luck and Privilege

Luck also operates within social and economic contexts, intertwining with privilege and systemic inequality. John Rawls argued that our starting points—our "natural lottery"—significantly affect life outcomes. Birthplace, family background, and socio-economic conditions influence opportunities and achievements more than we often acknowledge.

Labeling advantages as "luck" can obscure structural injustices and discourage systemic reforms. Recognizing these structural factors urges us to advocate for fairer policies and equitable access to resources.

Psychological Perspective: Meaning and Control

Psychologically, belief in luck serves as a coping mechanism, helping people navigate uncertainty. Rituals, talismans, and charms provide a sense of control, reducing anxiety and enhancing confidence.

However, excessive reliance on luck can breed fatalism, diminishing motivation and effort. Striking a balance between embracing uncertainty and maintaining agency is crucial for psychological well-being.

Luck in the Digital Age: Algorithms and the New Serendipity

Today’s world, dominated by algorithms, introduces a new dimension to luck. Social media algorithms can amplify or bury content unpredictably, creating viral sensations overnight. For many creators, this algorithmic boost appears as sheer luck.

Similarly, AI-driven processes in hiring or credit assessments can introduce an opaque randomness, shaping lives in ways that feel arbitrary and unfair. This "algorithmic luck" raises ethical questions about fairness and transparency in technology-driven systems.

Contemporary Relevance: Navigating Global Uncertainty

The COVID-19 pandemic starkly illustrated how luck—where one lives, access to healthcare, genetic predispositions—can determine survival. Natural disasters and economic crises further reveal the random distribution of suffering and resilience.

In professional contexts, abrupt market shifts and technological disruptions can dramatically alter career trajectories, often described as "luck" by those who survive or thrive.

Recognizing the interplay of chance and preparation can foster empathy, humility, and collective responsibility. It reminds us that individual success often depends on many unseen hands and fortunate circumstances, urging us to support those less advantaged.

Policy Perspective: Embracing Scientific Inquiry

Given these complexities, it is crucial at a policy level to promote rigorous scientific research into phenomena traditionally dismissed as pseudoscience. My own experiences—from childhood stories to my discussions with my student—suggest that while many claims in astrology and related fields lack empirical basis, some interpretations, when approached with scientific rigor and mathematical modeling, show surprising validity.

India, rich in traditions and cultural heritage, paradoxically lacks strong institutional support for scientifically examining these traditional knowledge systems. Establishing dedicated research centers staffed with competent, multidisciplinary experts can bridge this gap. Such centers could integrate data science, psychology, mathematics, and cultural studies to explore and validate patterns objectively.

Rather than dismissing these practices as mere superstition or blindly endorsing them, a balanced, evidence-based approach could transform cultural wisdom into actionable insights, benefiting both individuals and society. Encouraging such research would not only preserve heritage but also open pathways to new scientific discoveries and innovations.

Beyond Luck — Toward Agency and Scientific Understanding

Is luck real or just perception? Philosophical, scientific, and practical examinations suggest that while luck is often a subjective framework for interpreting randomness, its psychological and social influence is real. Recognizing the boundaries between chance and control empowers individuals to act with responsibility while acknowledging life's inherent uncertainties.

Moving forward, embracing a nuanced understanding of luck can promote humility and collective empathy. It can inspire policy reforms and scientific initiatives that respect cultural traditions while demanding evidence and rigor.

Ultimately, success may always involve an element of serendipity. Yet, by preparing diligently, acting with integrity, and fostering environments that nurture both science and tradition, we can shape what we often attribute to luck—transforming it into a conscious, shared, and meaningful journey.